Forecast 2012 - a review of the preview
Week beginning May 21, 2012
This weekend I want to take a step back and review the outlook I presented in Forecast 2012, published early in January.
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2012
The document then lists a series of 6 major trend turn dates for the year ... the first of which was listed as March 13/14.
Following markets daily, or even commenting weekly, can cause us to lose sight of the big picture - especially when so much attention is paid to Wall Street.
These are the tops-to-date: Brazil - March 14; Canada - February 29; Shanghai - Feb 27 & Mar 14; Hong Kong - Feb 20 & Mar 14; India - Feb 22; Japan - Mar 27; Singapore - Mar 16; South Korea - Mar 14; Taiwan - Mar 2 & Mar 14; Austria - Mar 19; France - Mar 16; Germany - Mar 16; Netherlands - Mar 16; England - Mar 14; Nasdaq - Mar 27; Wilshire - April 2; SPX - April 2; Australia - May 1.
Clearly then, most of the world's major stock indices did hit their Highs on March 14, or very near to that date.
Now, the reason I'm going through this exercise is: The second date on that list does not arrive until June 25.
The Bradley Model anticipates the next major trend change date a little earlier - June 12.
There will be no extended edition this weekend. Markets overall appear to be solidly entrenched in the scenario I outlined in Forecast 2012 - a multi-year peak coinciding with Jupiter in the early degrees of Taurus (see under the Articles button of the main navigation bar).
Nearly all major markets appear to have hit their 2012 Highs almost exactly on cue, or within a couple of weeks of my first predicted date. So, in terms of the big picture, I'm going to trust the Forecast and look for signs of another major shift in the trend around mid-to-late June.
Everything else is just noise.
Following markets daily, or even commenting weekly, can cause us to lose sight of the big picture - especially when so much attention is paid to Wall Street.
These are the tops-to-date: Brazil - March 14; Canada - February 29; Shanghai - Feb 27 & Mar 14; Hong Kong - Feb 20 & Mar 14; India - Feb 22; Japan - Mar 27; Singapore - Mar 16; South Korea - Mar 14; Taiwan - Mar 2 & Mar 14; Austria - Mar 19; France - Mar 16; Germany - Mar 16; Netherlands - Mar 16; England - Mar 14; Nasdaq - Mar 27; Wilshire - April 2; SPX - April 2; Australia - May 1.
Clearly then, most of the world's major stock indices did hit their Highs on March 14, or very near to that date.
Now, the reason I'm going through this exercise is: The second date on that list does not arrive until June 25.
The Bradley Model anticipates the next major trend change date a little earlier - June 12.
There will be no extended edition this weekend. Markets overall appear to be solidly entrenched in the scenario I outlined in Forecast 2012 - a multi-year peak coinciding with Jupiter in the early degrees of Taurus (see under the Articles button of the main navigation bar).
Nearly all major markets appear to have hit their 2012 Highs almost exactly on cue, or within a couple of weeks of my first predicted date. So, in terms of the big picture, I'm going to trust the Forecast and look for signs of another major shift in the trend around mid-to-late June.
Everything else is just noise.
The final chapter of that document is titled "Conclusions" and begins with this sentence:
"I expect Western stock markets to top out by mid-March and go into a Bear plunge unlikely to terminate before late October or mid-November."
"I expect Western stock markets to top out by mid-March and go into a Bear plunge unlikely to terminate before late October or mid-November."
Safe trading - RA
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
