Still in search of some certainty
Week beginning March 10, 2014
Gee,Zeus! It's like trying to herd cats! Some markets are flying north ... others seem to have gone for a long walk on a short pier.
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014
Maybe they just have a genetic memory that getting involved in that particular piece of land tends not to end well for either of them.
I ended last week's edition with the words: "The next move isn't obvious ... well, it's not to me. I lean more towards a probable decline, but there is a danger in getting married to that expectation. Hopefully, the next few days will provide greater certainty."
I'm really not sure they have provided greater certainty ... not with a few indices going higher and other major ones going lower.
So, we'll go to some charts and try to get some sense of the possible, if not the probable.
I ended last week's edition with the words: "The next move isn't obvious ... well, it's not to me. I lean more towards a probable decline, but there is a danger in getting married to that expectation. Hopefully, the next few days will provide greater certainty."
I'm really not sure they have provided greater certainty ... not with a few indices going higher and other major ones going lower.
So, we'll go to some charts and try to get some sense of the possible, if not the probable.
In the USA, the Russell, the 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have again hit new highs ... while the Dow Jones Industrials and Transports continue to lag.
Other markets, as diverse as Argentina, France, Denmark, New Zealand and India all rode to new highs ... while Britain and Germany heard the word "Crimea" and went into a funk.
Other markets, as diverse as Argentina, France, Denmark, New Zealand and India all rode to new highs ... while Britain and Germany heard the word "Crimea" and went into a funk.
Safe trading - RA
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
The star performer last week was India, Mumbai's Nifty index finally broke free of planetary price resistance clustered near the 6400 level.
It has run into another line of resistance. There are no screeching warning sirens from the oscillator on a weekly basis and if the index can now hold the next minor correction no lower than the early 6400s, much higher prices can be expected.
It has run into another line of resistance. There are no screeching warning sirens from the oscillator on a weekly basis and if the index can now hold the next minor correction no lower than the early 6400s, much higher prices can be expected.
Somebody mentioned Florence Nightingale and the Charge of the Light Brigade to London's FTSE and the teapots tumbled to the floor.
The FTSE has been having a LOT of trouble getting through these weekly Saturn lines; and there's nothing in the oscillator readings to give a clearcut indication of which way the index will break.
The FTSE has been having a LOT of trouble getting through these weekly Saturn lines; and there's nothing in the oscillator readings to give a clearcut indication of which way the index will break.
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Forecast 2014 is now available for sale and download.
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Click the button on the right for more details.
Similarly, the ASX 200 could break either way. Auntie's daily All Planets chart is below. It didn't make a precise touch of either of the light blue Saturn lines last week.
Monday dived and bounced back into a Venus support line; Tuesday couldn't decide whether to breakout above a downtrending Venus; and Wednesday jumped above it.
If the index can clear 5511 decisively in the coming week, new highs are on the cards, since there should be a relatively easy run higher into the 5600/5700s.
Monday dived and bounced back into a Venus support line; Tuesday couldn't decide whether to breakout above a downtrending Venus; and Wednesday jumped above it.
If the index can clear 5511 decisively in the coming week, new highs are on the cards, since there should be a relatively easy run higher into the 5600/5700s.
Now, let's turn our attention to the Paris Hilton of stock indices ... Miss Pollyanna, the SP500. She finished the previous week with a touch of the Neptune line at 1864 ... dived on Monday ... and went on a tearaway on Tuesday.
These are daily bars on a Weekly Planets chart for the index and a breakout opens a target zone from 1917 to 1932.
These are daily bars on a Weekly Planets chart for the index and a breakout opens a target zone from 1917 to 1932.
It would probably take some good news to get there quickly, however. We've been talking about how the 500's weekly Bollinger Bands had started to tighten. They're now opening wider again ... but with a breach of the upper outer barrier.
We've been discussing Bi-BB trading at some length since early in the year. I've circled each of the Bi-BB breaks on the chart below. Every one of them, even the little ones, either stalled the uptrend, or provoked a correction.
We've been discussing Bi-BB trading at some length since early in the year. I've circled each of the Bi-BB breaks on the chart below. Every one of them, even the little ones, either stalled the uptrend, or provoked a correction.
Gold. Now, I haven't forgotten that I did promise to compile a special report. I'll get it done in the next 2 weeks. In the meantime, there is a chance the correction is over and gold is on a new multi-year Bull run.
And the reason I say that is because I'm a silly old bugger who plays with planets. And, as I explained in Forecast 2013, my research tells me the Sun drives gold between Pluto stations.
The thick green lines on the chart below are primary Sun lines. And gold has now completed its fourth week outside the primary channel which constrained almost all of the downside and upside price action since the great drop began in 2011.
And the reason I say that is because I'm a silly old bugger who plays with planets. And, as I explained in Forecast 2013, my research tells me the Sun drives gold between Pluto stations.
The thick green lines on the chart below are primary Sun lines. And gold has now completed its fourth week outside the primary channel which constrained almost all of the downside and upside price action since the great drop began in 2011.
Okay, so that was a big picture. Now, let's return to the daily. Short story ... still climbing the Sun line and trying to hold the 1336 Pluto to make a run at a stronger 1363 Pluto.
And ... we're probably about to see a fast move. Remember the lessons from the past few weeks ... tightening bands provoke a fast move and the first move is usually in the wrong direction.
