Preparing for the probable bear in 2012
Week beginning December 19, 2011
This will be my final column for 2011, as I prepare to issue a 2nd edition of The Idiot & The Moon.
Everyone who has bought a copy of the book since I launched it late in June will be provided a copy of the updated book at no charge - and that also applies to anyone who buys a copy between now and the publication of the 2nd edition, likely late in January.
Everyone who has bought a copy of the book since I launched it late in June will be provided a copy of the updated book at no charge - and that also applies to anyone who buys a copy between now and the publication of the 2nd edition, likely late in January.
Warm regards .. and Safe trading - RA
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011
When I first wrote the book, it was my intention to provide readers with the basic knowledge they needed to trade stock markets safely and reliably - while always protecting their base capital.
It concentrated on a very small range of techniques - the three-timeframe Idiot method in particular. That will not change.
The biggest change is that I have decided to incorporate a year-ahead forecast, detailing what I expect to happen over the course of 2012 and the Time and Price levels likely to be important turning points.
The new section will also include more of what I usually refer to as The Spooky Stuff. Apart from The Moods of The Moon and Old Gods & Price Points, the book is unashamedly and unapologetically about using technical tools to predict market behavior.
And it will always be my position that the technical conditions always trump the astrological expectations.
Nevertheless, the first edition only scratched the surface of that latter topic and I think all of you will really enjoy some of the new charts I'll include in the updated version.
Warm regards and best wishes for the holiday season - RA.
It concentrated on a very small range of techniques - the three-timeframe Idiot method in particular. That will not change.
The biggest change is that I have decided to incorporate a year-ahead forecast, detailing what I expect to happen over the course of 2012 and the Time and Price levels likely to be important turning points.
The new section will also include more of what I usually refer to as The Spooky Stuff. Apart from The Moods of The Moon and Old Gods & Price Points, the book is unashamedly and unapologetically about using technical tools to predict market behavior.
And it will always be my position that the technical conditions always trump the astrological expectations.
Nevertheless, the first edition only scratched the surface of that latter topic and I think all of you will really enjoy some of the new charts I'll include in the updated version.
Warm regards and best wishes for the holiday season - RA.
We began last weekend with an expectation that tightening Bollinger Bands on weekly charts foretold of a strong, fast move rapidly approaching - and it appears to be underway.
The difficulty, for the moment, is judging whether it will turn out to be a move "in the wrong direction", or the start of something significant.
From this weekend into the end of the year, there are a number of market-moving astrological aspects happening. The trouble is it will all be taking place on very low volume, which allows the pre-programmed computers to control the action while real people are concentrating on other things.
For a long time now you've all been aware of what I expect to unfold ... that we have either entered, or are still in the "process" of entering, a renewed Bear market unlikely to bottom before October/November of next year.
We are waiting for confirmation that is what is happening - and watching for what I regard as the probability of a final exhaustion run to the upside before it all falls in a hole.
Over the past couple of weekends, I reviewed the long-range charts for Pollyanna, the SP500, so we can see the likely stopping price levels if that exhaustion rally takes place.
In earlier editions of The Eye of Ra, we looked over the technical charts and what appears to be a repeating pattern from 2007-2008.
For the moment, there's not much to add - and I think a properly-considered forecast for the full year ahead will, ultimately, prove to be of more real use to all of us than just another weekly waffle.
The difficulty, for the moment, is judging whether it will turn out to be a move "in the wrong direction", or the start of something significant.
From this weekend into the end of the year, there are a number of market-moving astrological aspects happening. The trouble is it will all be taking place on very low volume, which allows the pre-programmed computers to control the action while real people are concentrating on other things.
For a long time now you've all been aware of what I expect to unfold ... that we have either entered, or are still in the "process" of entering, a renewed Bear market unlikely to bottom before October/November of next year.
We are waiting for confirmation that is what is happening - and watching for what I regard as the probability of a final exhaustion run to the upside before it all falls in a hole.
Over the past couple of weekends, I reviewed the long-range charts for Pollyanna, the SP500, so we can see the likely stopping price levels if that exhaustion rally takes place.
In earlier editions of The Eye of Ra, we looked over the technical charts and what appears to be a repeating pattern from 2007-2008.
For the moment, there's not much to add - and I think a properly-considered forecast for the full year ahead will, ultimately, prove to be of more real use to all of us than just another weekly waffle.
While the SP500 has not yet reached the mid-BB level, the ASX200 has done so ... and may be using it to try to stage a bounce up into the statistically positive New Moon period.
Above is a close-up version of the tightening Weekly Bi-BBs chart we looked at last week, showing an initial, wide-range move to the downside, while the fast MACD struggles to hold the Zero line.
It's actually unusual for Wall Street to make a determined bid to the downside during December. Most years, the so-called Santa Claus rally kicks in for the last half of the month ... perhaps in an effort to pretty-up the books going into the end-of-year.
The mid-range of the Bi-BBs is currently sitting at 1200 - a price level which is also important on Polly's Weekly Planets chart, below.
It's actually unusual for Wall Street to make a determined bid to the downside during December. Most years, the so-called Santa Claus rally kicks in for the last half of the month ... perhaps in an effort to pretty-up the books going into the end-of-year.
The mid-range of the Bi-BBs is currently sitting at 1200 - a price level which is also important on Polly's Weekly Planets chart, below.
I'm actually hoping that markets will defy tradition and keep heading south into late December, which would set up a final rally into late February/early March.
However, I'm also aware that if it follows the pattern we've been discussing for quite some time now, the next Bear leg could start at any time.
It has been 5 months on the side since the August spike down and the pressure for a big move continues building.
However, I'm also aware that if it follows the pattern we've been discussing for quite some time now, the next Bear leg could start at any time.
It has been 5 months on the side since the August spike down and the pressure for a big move continues building.
I'll leave you, as usual, with Auntie's Weekly Planets price chart ... and see you again in January.