Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011
So, what happens now?!?
Week beginning August 1, 2011
I guess the heading on last week's report - Potential end to the Bull run this week - had the timing pretty much right, in spite of the Moon phase.
Now that I've dispensed with the advertising, let's turn our attention to the markets. There's a lot to go through, especially given the failure of the normally optimistic Third Quarter to New Moon phase, the fact that Mercury is about to go Retrograde, and that Mars is about to shift into the Cardinal sign of Cancer and conjunct the Sun, Venus and Jupiter of the USA's natal chart.
Safe trading - RA
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
I fully appreciate that quite a number of you dear readers are not "into" astrology, but I also know a lot of you have been attracted to this site because you're Moon traders who get a bit perplexed about why the statistical tendencies sometimes collapse. Don't worry ... I'm not about to befuddle your brains with a lot of mystical mumbo-jumbo.
I don't expect you to "believe"; this is not a religious site. There will always be some mix of spooky stuff and straight-out technicals.
Firstly, let's recap a little. Ever since I launched the book and this website in June, I've been talking about the potential for a significant turning point in this timeframe and around the Price levels the SP500 started last week. Last weekend, I warned for the first time: "The danger period is now approaching fast."
The dates from July 27 to early August were mentioned specifically - and July 27 turned out to be the day the index started plunging.
Now, it's also true I was very open to the potential for an exhaustion run to the early 1400s to kill off the Bull recovery from the bottom in March, 2009. Prediction is, at best, an imprecise art. I'm not sure anyone ought to quibble too much about the absence of that final run or the failure of the 3Q-NM period.
It is why, after many years of trading, I invented The Idiot, who is much, much smarter than I am! And is why I stress in the book that The Idiot is the primary decision tool of my form of trading. And also why, Moon Traders, I go to some length to point out that the Moon phases are statistical, but prone to catastrophic failure under certain conditions.
Moon trading is very, very profitable - so long as one does NOT take the assumed trades during those times The Idiot is turning negative or The Canaries are croaking. It is the combination of technical signals with Moon phases which produces the safest, most profitable Loonytoons trades.
Now, I want to have a little chat about Mercury Rx. Several times a year, from an Earthly perspective, the planet named after the Messenger of the Gods appears to go backwards. There are some astrologers who throw up their hands and have a long list of things one must not do for the few weeks that Murky Wrecks.
I'm not one of them. I think most of it is bullshit. Let me say that again. Bullshit. Bullshit. Bullshit. Some insignificant bloody rock in the sky appears to be going backwards. Well, Mercury might be Rx ... but my brain ain't! And your's probably isn't either.
There are some things which do seem to occur frequently during Merc Rx periods, but they're usually little things. Like, your computer will go crazy at exactly the wrong moment ... You'll hit the Buy button on your trading software when you actually meant to hit the Sell button ... You'll think the oscillators are screaming continuation when they're actually yelling divergence at the top of their lungs.
All of these things are easily overcome. Slow down. Take extra care. Double check everything is what you actually want before pressing the button or hitting the switch.
Two other things, specifically related to stock markets, tend to occur. Kaye Shinker, author of the four-volume Textbook for Financial Astrology (www.astrologicalinvesting.com) has done some research on the Dow Industrials and found that most of the time, the DJI ends the Merc Rx period within 1% of the price level it started at. That is ... on August 27, there is a reasonably strong chance the Dow will be within 1% of its closing price on August 3.
Of course, that's "most" of the time. And then there are the "other" times.
What also occurs very frequently with Mercury Retrograde is that markets will make a sudden move, often in an unexpected direction at the start of the period and then reverse course halfway through. If a market does NOT move at the start of the period, it will usually start a strong move halfway through the period.
We also need to consider the influence of Mars changing signs, especially since Cancer is a Cardinal sign. That simply means it's one of the "action" signs. It has been in Gemini ... the sign of (too much) talk and Paleface Speak With Forked Tongue. Mars in Gemini = combative too much two-faced talk. As I said weeks ago, forget Greece, the real elephant in the room was the one kicking ass, if I may refer to the Democratic Donkey so impolitely.
I won't get into what it might mean in terms of armed conflict and a combative stance to protect the homeland. But what I do want to get into is the potential for things not to go the way we might be expecting. Mars' first move will be to trine Neptune. More importantly, though, is that it will immediately start applying to a conjunction of the USA's two money planets, Venus and Jupiter.
It holds the possibilty of seeing some surprise turnarounds in economic credentials. Later in the month, it squares Uranus, opposes Pluto and will square Saturn. The square to Uranus is the real danger zone - around August 10th - because Mars aspecting Uranus can bring on a crash cycle.
Okay! I've done the advertising spiel and I've wandered through some of the spooky stuff. All you need to remember from the latter is this: (a) double check you're doing what you intended to do, (b) watch for a move halfway through the period August 3 to 27; (c) don't be too surprised if there's more action and a lot less talk when it comes to the USA's financial position.
Now, let's put all that nonsense behind us and get to the stuff all you infidel, non-believer tech-heads want to hear about, eh?!
I don't expect you to "believe"; this is not a religious site. There will always be some mix of spooky stuff and straight-out technicals.
Firstly, let's recap a little. Ever since I launched the book and this website in June, I've been talking about the potential for a significant turning point in this timeframe and around the Price levels the SP500 started last week. Last weekend, I warned for the first time: "The danger period is now approaching fast."
The dates from July 27 to early August were mentioned specifically - and July 27 turned out to be the day the index started plunging.
Now, it's also true I was very open to the potential for an exhaustion run to the early 1400s to kill off the Bull recovery from the bottom in March, 2009. Prediction is, at best, an imprecise art. I'm not sure anyone ought to quibble too much about the absence of that final run or the failure of the 3Q-NM period.
It is why, after many years of trading, I invented The Idiot, who is much, much smarter than I am! And is why I stress in the book that The Idiot is the primary decision tool of my form of trading. And also why, Moon Traders, I go to some length to point out that the Moon phases are statistical, but prone to catastrophic failure under certain conditions.
Moon trading is very, very profitable - so long as one does NOT take the assumed trades during those times The Idiot is turning negative or The Canaries are croaking. It is the combination of technical signals with Moon phases which produces the safest, most profitable Loonytoons trades.
Now, I want to have a little chat about Mercury Rx. Several times a year, from an Earthly perspective, the planet named after the Messenger of the Gods appears to go backwards. There are some astrologers who throw up their hands and have a long list of things one must not do for the few weeks that Murky Wrecks.
I'm not one of them. I think most of it is bullshit. Let me say that again. Bullshit. Bullshit. Bullshit. Some insignificant bloody rock in the sky appears to be going backwards. Well, Mercury might be Rx ... but my brain ain't! And your's probably isn't either.
There are some things which do seem to occur frequently during Merc Rx periods, but they're usually little things. Like, your computer will go crazy at exactly the wrong moment ... You'll hit the Buy button on your trading software when you actually meant to hit the Sell button ... You'll think the oscillators are screaming continuation when they're actually yelling divergence at the top of their lungs.
All of these things are easily overcome. Slow down. Take extra care. Double check everything is what you actually want before pressing the button or hitting the switch.
Two other things, specifically related to stock markets, tend to occur. Kaye Shinker, author of the four-volume Textbook for Financial Astrology (www.astrologicalinvesting.com) has done some research on the Dow Industrials and found that most of the time, the DJI ends the Merc Rx period within 1% of the price level it started at. That is ... on August 27, there is a reasonably strong chance the Dow will be within 1% of its closing price on August 3.
Of course, that's "most" of the time. And then there are the "other" times.
What also occurs very frequently with Mercury Retrograde is that markets will make a sudden move, often in an unexpected direction at the start of the period and then reverse course halfway through. If a market does NOT move at the start of the period, it will usually start a strong move halfway through the period.
We also need to consider the influence of Mars changing signs, especially since Cancer is a Cardinal sign. That simply means it's one of the "action" signs. It has been in Gemini ... the sign of (too much) talk and Paleface Speak With Forked Tongue. Mars in Gemini = combative too much two-faced talk. As I said weeks ago, forget Greece, the real elephant in the room was the one kicking ass, if I may refer to the Democratic Donkey so impolitely.
I won't get into what it might mean in terms of armed conflict and a combative stance to protect the homeland. But what I do want to get into is the potential for things not to go the way we might be expecting. Mars' first move will be to trine Neptune. More importantly, though, is that it will immediately start applying to a conjunction of the USA's two money planets, Venus and Jupiter.
It holds the possibilty of seeing some surprise turnarounds in economic credentials. Later in the month, it squares Uranus, opposes Pluto and will square Saturn. The square to Uranus is the real danger zone - around August 10th - because Mars aspecting Uranus can bring on a crash cycle.
Okay! I've done the advertising spiel and I've wandered through some of the spooky stuff. All you need to remember from the latter is this: (a) double check you're doing what you intended to do, (b) watch for a move halfway through the period August 3 to 27; (c) don't be too surprised if there's more action and a lot less talk when it comes to the USA's financial position.
Now, let's put all that nonsense behind us and get to the stuff all you infidel, non-believer tech-heads want to hear about, eh?!
The first point I want to make is this: The Idiot is now on a confirmed Sell signal on daily and weekly charts and is within ONE CENT of being on a Sell in terms of the monthly chart.
This is the multi-decade monthly chart of the SP500 and the fast MACD is rolling over - though still without a negative divergence signal. Price continues to maintain the sharp uptrend angle, even though it's a too far-too fast steepness of trend.
This is the multi-decade monthly chart of the SP500 and the fast MACD is rolling over - though still without a negative divergence signal. Price continues to maintain the sharp uptrend angle, even though it's a too far-too fast steepness of trend.
I indicated last weekend we had reached the point where we had to consider celibacy - falling OUT of love with our Long positions - or even better, Shorting.
It happened faster than even I had expected, with the worst plunge happening right on the first turn date I'd highlighted. With Mars heading to a confrontation with Uranus, which rules stock markets, there is danger of a crash cycle starting.
We are at one of those times when all but the most adventurous traders should carefully consider all Open positions and take whatever steps they think are necessary to protect, firstly, their capital base and secondly any profits already accrued.
It happened faster than even I had expected, with the worst plunge happening right on the first turn date I'd highlighted. With Mars heading to a confrontation with Uranus, which rules stock markets, there is danger of a crash cycle starting.
We are at one of those times when all but the most adventurous traders should carefully consider all Open positions and take whatever steps they think are necessary to protect, firstly, their capital base and secondly any profits already accrued.
This is my weekly Old Gods chart for the 500. It's impossible to be sure which way this is going next - since the statistical negativity of the New Moon - Full Moon period will be affected by the other spooky stuff I've mentioned; which will translate, in the real world, as reaction to the deal, or not, worked out between the White House and Congress.
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011
I received several rather nice emails during the week from people who have bought The Idiot & The Moon, including one from an experienced trader who wrote:
"I was either missing the boat or staying too long at the fair.
"Return on cost of book: $1470 in one week. Thank you for that one. I would have missed it. I will definitely follow your website and continue re-reading the book."
I was particularly chuffed to hear the news someone had made a safe and very profitable trade in a short time on their very first time using The Idiot - a trade they'd otherwise have missed.
Chuffed because it is the whole raison d'etre for both the book and this weekly report, which is designed to help readers grow confident with applying the techniques.
The methods outlined in the book are not a get-rich-quick con. The primary purpose is to keep your capital base intact, while identifying potentially profitable trades that are safe, reliable ... and regular!
Above all, it's a DIY course aimed at both new traders and those of us who've become distracted too many times over stuff that doesn't really matter.
"I was either missing the boat or staying too long at the fair.
"Return on cost of book: $1470 in one week. Thank you for that one. I would have missed it. I will definitely follow your website and continue re-reading the book."
I was particularly chuffed to hear the news someone had made a safe and very profitable trade in a short time on their very first time using The Idiot - a trade they'd otherwise have missed.
Chuffed because it is the whole raison d'etre for both the book and this weekly report, which is designed to help readers grow confident with applying the techniques.
The methods outlined in the book are not a get-rich-quick con. The primary purpose is to keep your capital base intact, while identifying potentially profitable trades that are safe, reliable ... and regular!
Above all, it's a DIY course aimed at both new traders and those of us who've become distracted too many times over stuff that doesn't really matter.
We'll go to the detail of what's happening in world markets in a moment, but first I'm going to indulge in some shameless self-promotion.
The second point I want to make is: There is negative divergence in one of the primary Canaries ... and it has made a negative cross for the first time since the Bear market Low in 2009.
So, we have now arrived at the point where great caution is needed in continuing to maintain any Long positions, at least so far as the general condition of the SP500 is concerned.
We still have the potential for a surprise, relief run higher. But, for the first time since the recovery Bull run started, the danger klaxons are sounding very, very loudly.
So, we have now arrived at the point where great caution is needed in continuing to maintain any Long positions, at least so far as the general condition of the SP500 is concerned.
We still have the potential for a surprise, relief run higher. But, for the first time since the recovery Bull run started, the danger klaxons are sounding very, very loudly.
I closed last weekend with the weekly planetary price chart for the ASX200 - noting there was a developing positive divergence signal in the MACD, which appeared to be on the verge of giving a Buy signal with a target of 4680. Wrong!
Which is also a point I make in the book ... one can have an "expectation" of what will happen, one can have a "bias". It is perfectly legitimate to have a bias, even perfectly acceptable to position for a potential move in the expected direction. But! There are times one also has to put the Ego back in his box - and humbly follow The Idiot, whose job it is to protect our capital and tell us when it's safe to make a play.
Oh, I know it's irksome! Incredibly bloody irritating, quite frankly. But, if that signal suddenly starts telling us to get the hell out of Dodge, fast ... don't stop to argue.
I'm not sure, to be honest, what's going to happen here ... whether Auntie ASX is going to plunge to 4200, or whether a drop of this magnitude will need to be consolidated with a smaller-range week, or countertrend rally. Nor do I much mind either way. The key was in following the expected moves into exactly this timeframe and then be prepared to review everything because of the danger it held.
And, as astrologers will tell you, any of the words starting with "re" are good things to do during Mercury Rx - review, revise, reconsider. Even read!
Which is also a point I make in the book ... one can have an "expectation" of what will happen, one can have a "bias". It is perfectly legitimate to have a bias, even perfectly acceptable to position for a potential move in the expected direction. But! There are times one also has to put the Ego back in his box - and humbly follow The Idiot, whose job it is to protect our capital and tell us when it's safe to make a play.
Oh, I know it's irksome! Incredibly bloody irritating, quite frankly. But, if that signal suddenly starts telling us to get the hell out of Dodge, fast ... don't stop to argue.
I'm not sure, to be honest, what's going to happen here ... whether Auntie ASX is going to plunge to 4200, or whether a drop of this magnitude will need to be consolidated with a smaller-range week, or countertrend rally. Nor do I much mind either way. The key was in following the expected moves into exactly this timeframe and then be prepared to review everything because of the danger it held.
And, as astrologers will tell you, any of the words starting with "re" are good things to do during Mercury Rx - review, revise, reconsider. Even read!
